Mywavez.net Intraday FX Analysis Wednesday, November 20, 2009

EURUSD

Comment:

Not much changed since last time. EURUSD could be forming a triangle. Wave a bounced of from the multi-month support and price has been unable to set a new high. We still have several options: -         Triangle -         A new high through a diagonal -         Wave b could also be a wave 2 and we are tracing out a series of 1’s and 2’s. Price is testing the support line again. For some reason 4810 is a significant support. On a break of the trendline I am short with a stop above 4810.

USDJPY

Comment:

USDJPY could be done with tracing out a double zigzag, but might also have some more downside. Price broke through resistance channel, MACD trying to recover but staying below the zero line, and prices are still struggling with the 50MA. I am neutral on this pair.

GBPUSD

Comment:

GBPUSD broke through its former trading channel on the downside and is falling hard. Question is if the current structure is done or part of a bigger move. We can count 5 waves down but wave v is at the 161.8 extension of wave iii. If this is part of a bigger move prices should at leas fall to 1.62.  For now I am going with the 5 wave move and a resumption to the 1.62 level and lower.

EURJPY

Comment:

On the larger timeframe this pair has been trading inside a very large triangle. We now see a complex movement and we need a break out of the triangle to know where this pair is going. Neutral on this pair until 131 gives way.

EURGBP

Comment:

This pair is in a larger degree wave 4 and I was expecting the uptrend to resume. Price bounced off from the 61.8% retrace and formed 5 waves up and now continued the uptrend as expected.

AUSUSD

Comment:

We had an opportunity here and over 200 pips gain. I can count 5 waves down and a test of the trendline. MACD is still pointing down which could mean a further drop. The trendline might hold so we need to keep an eye on this.

USDCAD

Comment:

250 pips gain on this since last time. Prices broke through the trendline, tested support and bounced off again at 61.8% of the former high. Bullish on this pair unless price breaks 1.04. The ideal entry point was the bounce from the 61.8% support. That is where the MACD turned positive and you can see bullish divergece in the MACD. Textbook and this pair might break the 1.088 level if this count is correct.

Dow

Comment:

Not much change. Dow bounced off the trendline and is forming a complex formation . Prices are trying to break the 50% fibonacci resistance and are struggeling. The current move from X is equal to the move from the low to W. In an double zigzag that is the ideal target. However, prices might move higher to test the 61.8% fibonacci resistance. There is a cluster of resistance between 10400 and 11275. As of this morning prices are below the 50% again. We might see a restest of the bottom trendline.